Some day, there will be peace. And then what?
Let’s hope, the war between Russia and Ukraine will stop soon. Better today than tomorrow. But if the war stops, the hostility will continue. Because Putin will not get what he wanted.
Ukraine as the new Belarus
Let’s be honest: Putin wants Ukraine to be the next Belarus. If you think, Aleksander Lukashenko is the chief of state of Belarus, then you’re wrong. I am not talking about who should be the chief of state, but who de facto IS the chief of state. And that is Czar Vladimir The Great. Or that is how he sees himself. Belarus is just as autonomous as Himmler and Goebbels were under Hitler: Belarus can make decisions, as long as it is not in the way of Russia. And lap dog Aleksander uses his mentor Vladimir all the time.
Putin said: it was a mistake to give Crimea to the Ukrainian Republic. That was a decision, taken by former leader of the Soviet Union Nikita Khrushchev. When the Ukrainian people in 2014 got tired and sick of Putins other lap dog, Viktor Yanukovych, and decided to get rid of him, Putin found it was time to undo that mistake, Krushchev had made.
The problem only was: Ukraine was, back in the Khrushchev days, a part of the Soviet Union — so the highest leader of the nation was in his right to give and take from Ukraine (seen with legal eyes). But the Soviet Union does not exist anymore. Ukraine became autonomous, just like Estland, Letland and Litauen. And Belarus. And Chechnya. But … there was a slight difference between some new countries on the one hand, and some other former Soviet republics on the other hand. More about that later.
The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991, and the Russian Federation was born. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union was kidnapped, and removed from his position as leader of the nation. In his place came Boris Yeltsin, who was the first president of the Russian Federation, which has declared itself independent from the Soviet Union. The question “wat Yeltsin good or bad for Russia” is not easy to answer. I think he struggled with some changes within the Soviet Union under Gorbachev. He agreed with Gorbachev that there was a need for changes, but he did not agree what these changes should be. But Yeltsin has been a high profiled member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, until one year before he became President of the Russian Federation. Initially he supported Gorbachevs perestrojka and glasnost, but later he found those ideas too soft: he wanted more changes. Bigger changes. More transparency. And that resulted in the coupe against Gorbachev, the dissolving of the Soviet Union and the start of the Russian Federation.
Communism reigns forever
But Yeltsin was still a communist, even though he called himself independent. “A rose, by any other name, would smell as sweet”, said William Shakespeare once, and that was also the case with Yeltsin. Just like all the other leaders of the communists, they had all their own thoughts. So when Yeltsin, because of his health, chose to step aside, and put Vladimir Putin in his place, it should’ve been clear that this was not a Yeltsin-adept, but a man with his own thoughts. Of course, there were similarities in their ideologies and politics, but there were also difference. Just like Putin finds It a mistake that Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine, finds Putin that Yeltsin made a mistake to dissolve the Soviet Union. And the transparency that Gorbachev initiated was not a thing Putin agreed with.
Rolling back the glasnost
Putin, of course, could not just remove the transparency. It took him many years, and many puppets, to make the situation very unclear. That is what Putin has been doing since he became president: pretending he is freely chosen, but while people can’t see it, remove all his opponents, silence the media, shut down all the critics, and telling a story that is far from true. Just like Joseph Stalin did.
Putin agreed with Yeltsin, that Chechnya should be a part of the Russian Federation. But since the country already had a status of independent, and the people of Chechnya somehow had experienced a scent of freedom, the plans of Yeltsin to conquer Chechnya failed. Putin tried again later, and succeeded. But Putin isn’t stupid: he knew that the people of Chechnya could become a huge pain in the butt, if he just added Chechnya to the Russian Federation. In stead, he chose to exchange the government with a guy, who was loyal to Putin, but not necessarily to the Russian Federation. He found Akhmad Kadyrov. So: Chechnya was still an independent country, but the leader was loyal to Putin. Unfortunately for Putin, he had to use military power to achieve that goal, but with enough lies, and the media silenced, nobody would see it. Not within Russia or Chechnya at least.
Putin’s Spoke in the Wheel
In the case of Belarus, Putin didn’t meet any obstacles: everything was done for him by Lukashenko, who fully accepted the hierarchy of the Communists. Putin didn’t had to invade, didn’t had to show his muscles: Belarus was easy. And that was also what Putin had hoped was the case in Ukraine: Yanukovych was just like Lukashenko — a Putin adept. Everything was fine, until the people of Ukraine wanted to get rid of Yanukovych: all the free elected presidents of Ukraine, until Yanukovych, were communists. But then came Petro Poroshenko — and that destroyed the ideas of Putin. Putin wanted to restore the communist power in Ukraine. He saw, that in the Crimea region, a larger group of people were against the non-communism-based government. And Putin sees the world as he is, not as the world is (that is a weakness many people, also in the Free World, have — but that is besides the point). I am not 100% sure about it, but I am choose to believe, that Putin is convinced, that the pro-Russian voices in Crimea were the only voices — the pro-West voices were just a little group that was lucky to have success with removing Yanukovych from office. And that is why he entitled Khrushchevs decision to give Crimea to Ukraine was a mistake. And as one of the successors of Khrushchev, it was his duty to correct that mistake. And so Putin took Crimea. He didn’t ask the people of Crimea, he just took it. He was convinced, that he was right. And ofcourse: cue to his communist background, he isn’t convinced (at all) that asking the people what they want, gives the correct answer, because they don’t know it themselves. Or so thinks Putin.
So let’s make this very clear: Putin does not believe in democracy, because he thinks people are dumb. And that gives him the right to make decisions for those people.
And then came February 24th, 2022. Putin attacked Ukraine. Because of the same reason: he does not believe, that the Ukrainian people know what they want. And since Ukraine and Russia share a huge part of their history, he finds is logically just to take Ukraine.
The war is still going on. And it does not look good for Putin and Russia. As I said in the beginning of this article: I hope there’ll be peace soon. But I don’t believe real peace come. Simply, because Putin is 100% convinced, that he is right and HAS rights to decide over other human’s heads.
Perhaps, there will be a treaty. A truce. For as long as it takes. But sooner or later, the Communists in Russia will take Ukraine. Maybe not now. Maybe not next year. But eventually, they will do exactly the same as they did in Chechnya.
And what will we do in the Free World? As soon there is an agreement between Zelensky and Putin, we will slowly begin to remove the sanctions against Russia. In 2027, Russia has it’s position in the world as it had in 2021. Putin will be speaking at UN-conferences. We will import from Russia like we did before. We will live with Russia and Putin as nothing happened. Until Russia takes Ukraine. Next time, they will succeed. And the Free World? It’s leaders with hit themselves on there forehead. “Stupid”, will we say. “We didn’t know it”. You should know it. Those, who do not know history, are doomed to repeat it.